How to Do Basic Crypto Research Yourself

Finding and using data to predict crypto market trends

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Are you new to Bitcoin and want to begin researching things for yourself? It is important to understand some basics in crypto before delving further into the subject matter. Sometimes it can feel overwhelming about where to begin with the myriad of cryptocurrencies now out there. Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency and the most popular of the coins. Decentralized currency means that transactions (exchanges) are not under the control of any authority.

A crypto currency wallet is used for keeping private key as well as public key, needed for sending and receiving coins. These coins could be any of the various types of digital currencies such as the major one, Bit coin (BTC) and others like Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Zcash (ZEC), etc. While some of these cryptocurrencies are similar, many are exploring and trying to solve unique use cases

To begin your journey in the world of crypto research, one of the first things you need to do is to find data. Digging into the data allows us to see the math behind ups and down swings. This sort of quantitative analysis can be fairly high level and used by banks or hedge funds to assess risk and strategic opportunities. One form of quantitative analysis involves statistics. As boring as it sounds, statistics could reveal correlations between currencies, or help you find an edge in the price movements.

You can find free crypto currency time series data online for the analysis. Download this data by clicking on the appropriate button, which will give you access to the CSV file. You can also use historical data available online for the analysis.

Before you proceed straight to the analysis phase, you must identify the question to which you are trying to find the answer.Here are some example ideas:

· Do bitcoin pricesconsistently go up first on one exchange before they increase on another?

· What is the worst daily loss recorded for Bitcoinon Coinbase exchange over a 24 hour period?

· Does the price of Bitcoin influence the prices of other cryptocurrencies?

· What percentage of time do cryptocurrency prices increase on the weekends?

Once you are ready to begin your analysis, open the CSV file on your laptop or any other similar device. To carry out some statistical analysis, Microsoft Excel is a great tool. It is capable of doing both correlation and regression analysis. To use Microsoft Excel for statistical analysis, ensure that Data Analysis ToolPak is installed. The feature should be on the far right of the toolbar.

If it is not there, on the top right of the toolbar, click on File→Options→Add-Ins, as shown below:

Then add the Data Analysis tool.

To do correlation analysis to know the strength of relation between 2 digital parameters (assets), click on Data Analysis now shown on the far right of your toolbar and select correlation. Then indicate the parameters you need for the analysis.For regression analysis, used to predict and forecast future market trends and investment opportunities, it is also available in the Data Analysis Tool.

Did you find what you think is a potential edge in your strategy? The next step is to back-test the strategy to see how it would have performed over time. What’s the good news about this? You can use the same free data to feed into back-testing programs, which simulate what your profit and loss might have been over that specified historical time frame.

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