Economies that imposed an early lock-down will thrive

New research reveals which economies will bounce back faster

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Countries that imposed strict and early social-distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 outbreak will result in their economies recovering much quicker than those who took a much more relaxed approach according to new research from ESCP Business School.

According to Professor Nabil Kahalé the social-distancing measures that have been taken to slow the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in most countries, are already causing huge economic consequences.

However, Professor Kahalé has proven in his recent studies that although social-distancing measures can damage the economy during the containment period, those countries that applied these measures strictly and as early as possible, will only suffer economic losses for a short period of time.

This is because strict social distancing measures require a shorter period of time to reduce the number of infected individuals to a predetermined level. Therefore, countries that have enforced early interventions will diminish their total economic loss in the long-term as their society can begin to operate again having obtained low infection rates.

“When social-distancing measures are needed to contain an epidemic, they should always be applied as strictly and as early as possible, so that they attain their objectives in a short period of time,” says Professor Kahalé

As most of us have been in lock-down for over a month now, we are now starting to look ahead as to how our economy will recover long- term. What is apparent though is that those countries where stringent measures were applied early will also recover much quickly out of this crisis — a lesson for many governments going forward.

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